Many institutions have different views on the trend of the oil market this year and next

　　On July 6, international oil prices recorded their biggest drop in nearly 4 months, with Brent crude plummeting 9.5% and U.S. WTI crude falling below $100 a barrel. On July 7, Brent crude oil also fell below $100/barrel to $98.61/barrel, while WTI closed at $98.53/barrel.

　　Based on this, the industry has begun to reassess the outlook for the oil market. Currently, more than 10 Wall Street investment banks and market institutions have made the latest forecasts. Considering the unstable supply and demand fundamentals and the obviously sluggish global economic trend, investment banks and institutions have obvious differences in their predictions about the oil price trend in the second half of this year and next year.

　　Investment banks Goldman Sachs, UBS and JPMorgan are all bullish on oil prices. Among them, JPMorgan Chase's forecast is the boldest, arguing that if Russia cuts oil production by 5 million barrels a day, Brent crude oil prices are very likely to soar to an "amazing high" of $380 a barrel by the end of the year.

　　Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $135 a barrel in the second half of this year and $125 a barrel next year. "Despite the growing likelihood of a recession, it's too early for the oil market to succumb to such concerns, the global economy is still growing, and oil demand will grow significantly faster than GDP this year," Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin said.

　　UBS pointed out that although the economic slowdown will drag down demand, oil demand will continue to remain strong, and the supply-side dilemma will drive oil prices to remain high. It is expected that by mid-2023, Brent crude oil prices will remain at $125/barrel. "The market should pay more attention to the supply-side situation than the economic situation," said UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo.

　　Citi is one of the few major investment banks to warn that oil prices will fall sharply. Based on its forecast of a 10% recession, it expects Brent to fall to $65 a barrel by the end of the year and to $45 by the end of 2023. USD/barrel. At the same time, Citi also lowered its oil demand forecast to 2.4 million barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day.

　　Standard & Poor's forecast for oil prices is also conservative. Based on the expectation that "global oil demand will increase by 2.8 million barrels per day this year and 2.4 million barrels per day in 2023", it is expected that the average price of Brent crude oil will be respectively this year and next. at $106/barrel and $90/barrel.

　　Reuters pointed out that with inflation at a multi-decade high, it is not expected that central banks will tighten fiscal policy in the second half of the year. The city will be under great pressure for some time to come.

　　It is worth noting that the sudden death of OPEC Secretary-General Mohamed Barkindo on July 6, given his influence in OPEC and the "OPEC+" production reduction alliance, will profoundly affect the direction of the oil market.

　　Some American media pointed out that Barkindo began to serve as OPEC's secretary-general in 2016. As the main witness to the turbulent period of the international oil market, he has been acting as the "lubricant" role between the Gulf countries, Russia and the United States. At a time when energy markets are turbulent, global inflation is high, and climate risks are rising, the sudden death of Barkindo will create some turbulence and, given his strong mediation capabilities, may lead to some linkages being forced Interruption, which in turn brings a "butterfly effect" to the oil market.

　　In his last public speech, Barkindo warned that the oil industry was under "siege" and that the imbalance between oil supply and demand due to years of underinvestment should be allowed to come back into the market, or else Iran and Venezuela should be allowed to return to the market, otherwise as Russian crude is swept away. "Expulsion", the oil market supply shortage problem will be more difficult.

　　In fact, the market remains skeptical about OPEC's willingness and ability to increase production in the coming months, with several OPEC members unable to meet their actual production quotas due to insufficient infrastructure, lack of investment or political instability.